Our Defense vs. Position table shows each defense’s projected fantasy points allowed over expectation against each position in the near future (roughly their next four games). If a team’s DvP against QBs is 10%, this means we’d expect that defense to inflate opposing QB performances by 10%. If a team’s DvP against QBs is -10%, this means we’d expect that defense to deflate opposing QB performances by 10%.
For example, if we would expect Patrick Mahomes to score 20 fantasy points in a neutral matchup, we’d expect him to score 22 points against a defense with a 10% DvP and 18 points against a defense with a -10% DvP.
Our DvP is based on the defense’s last eight games. It is adjusted for opponent strength and weighs recent games stronger. This means our DvP does include data from last season, but is weighing the weekly data from this season heavier. As a result, it will be noisier until we get further into the current season.
Our DvP is based on full-PPR scoring and is data only, so it does not take into account personnel changes or injuries. You’ll notice that the DvP numbers for defenses against WR/TE are generally smaller than the DvP numbers for defenses against QB/RB. That is intentional because WR/TE DvP is more volatile, and past defensive performance is relatively less predictive of future defensive performance for these positions so they get regressed further.
Using the DvP tables should allow you to gain an edge in identifying the strength of schedules for fantasy players over the next several weeks. For specific game matchups, we recommend looking more at our projections.
We create the highest-quality NFL content
Our team includes renowned fantasy analysts Evan Silva and Adam Levitan, high-stakes professional DFS players, and specialists who cover niche areas that we believe are important to understand.
We don’t sell lineups or claim to have all of the answers. We do analyze what’s happening in a way that’s digestible and actionable, with a goal of preparing you to make the best decisions possible during the 2021 NFL season.
Read on to learn what’s inside our In-Season NFL subscription.Full Details! » Already a subscriber? Log In