Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
The goal of this article isn’t to “tout” picks; it’s to help you develop your own process by showing you mine. You may not be able to get these lines at your book. The general idea is simple: Take a projection you’re confident in and compare it to the available line. After that, the key is to add in our knowledge of player usage to gain a bigger edge.
VERY IMPORTANT: These lines move very fast. In order to get notifications as soon as Adam bets, be sure to join our subscriber-only discord.
ALSO IMPORTANT: For NBA, we have separated props into its own product. You can subscribe here.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL Season-Long Record: 7-2, +$454
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1817
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 303-196, +$8550 (through December 28. Click here to subscribe to NBA props)
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 177-97: +$6941 (through Week 16)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
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